Swing states in flux: Harris gains ground as Trump's base holds firm

With just weeks to go until Election Day, the political landscape is shifting at a fast pace.  Recent debates, ongoing controversies, and dramatic events have captured the nation's attention.

As the race enters its final phase, both the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump campaigns are intensifying their efforts in key battleground states. They're targeting undecided voters—especially among younger demographics—in a bid to secure crucial electoral college votes.

To shed light on these evolving dynamics, Prolific conducts polling every two weeks to track voter sentiment and intentions. Our latest survey (carried September 22nd) reveals intriguing trends that could shape the outcome of this historic election.

Our polling paints an interesting picture of a deeply divided electorate. Harris now leads as the preferred leader for 46% of voters, compared to Trump's 43%. But the real drama is unfolding in the swing states and among key voter groups.

Young voters swaying the balance

In Arizona, nearly half of 18-24 year olds (45%) view Harris more favorably after the September 10 debate. This trend extends to other battleground states, with 31% of young voters across Michigan, Nevada, and North Carolina reporting a positive shift towards Harris.

But young voters aren't settling just yet. A notable 12% say they could still change their minds before Election Day. Both campaigns are likely to ramp up efforts to win over these undecided voters, especially in tight races.

The impact of Harris's debate performance wasn't limited to young voters. In Georgia and Wisconsin, 40% and 47% of Black voters respectively reported an improved opinion of Harris post-debate. These shifts in key demographics could prove crucial in closely contested states.

Trump's resilient base

Despite recent turbulence, Trump's core support remains strong. A striking 90% of Republicans still plan to vote for him, up 4% since early September. The September 15 assassination attempt seems to have galvanized his base, with 22% of Republicans reporting an improved opinion of Trump following the incident.

Trump's appeal beyond his loyal supporters appears limited however. Only 21% of Republicans view him “very favorably” after the most recent debate, compared to 32% who now hold a favorable opinion of Harris. The gap suggests potential challenges for Trump in expanding his support beyond his core base.

Is the celebrity factor more hype than impact?

Celebrity endorsements are a staple of modern campaigns, but our polling suggests their influence might be overstated. Only 2% of respondents say these endorsements directly sway their opinions.

That said, perception matters in politics. Forty-six percent of Democrats and 23% of Republicans believe endorsements like Taylor Swift's support for Harris could still influence the election outcome. Interestingly, 29% of young voters share this view.

These figures highlight an interesting disconnect between perceived influence and reported impact. While few voters admit to being directly swayed by celebrity endorsements, many believe they could affect the overall outcome. The perception alone could influence campaign strategies in the coming weeks.

Debates are potential game-changers

With 75% of respondents planning to tune in, the upcoming debate between the potential vice presidents could prove pivotal. The debate between Tim Walz and JD Vance on October 1 offers the opportunity to sway undecided voters, particularly in battleground states.

Given the high viewership intention, even a debate without the prime candidates could serve as critical moments for both campaigns. It provides a platform for candidates to address concerns, clarify policies, and potentially shift voter perceptions in key demographics.

Prolific’s approach

We're committed to providing accurate, timely insights into voter behavior and public opinion. Every two weeks, we survey a representative sample of the US population, tracking voting intentions and views on current affairs.

Our polling methodology, which you can find more about here, combines advanced sampling techniques with our diverse, verified participant pool. It’s an approach that allows us to capture a true snapshot of public opinion, even in a fast-changing political landscape.

For this poll, we surveyed 2,000 US adults for a representative sample across age groups, geographic regions, and political affiliations. We take the results and use an MRP (multiple regression with poststratification) method to add in representativeness by state, education, urbanicity, and political affiliation

What's next?

As we move closer to Election Day, several factors could still influence the outcome:

• The performance of both candidates in the upcoming debates.
• Any shifts in young voter preferences, given their current volatility.
• The effectiveness of get-out-the-vote efforts in key swing states.
• Potential impacts of late-breaking news or events.

Remember that polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. They reflect public opinion at a specific moment in time. As we've seen, a lot can change in the final weeks of a campaign.

Stay tuned for our next update in two weeks. In the meantime, we'd love to hear your thoughts. What trends are you noticing in your local area? How do these national figures compare to what you're seeing on the ground?

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If you want to partner with Prolific for our polling or would like your questions included, learn more and get in touch to see how we can help you gather insights that matter.