Vance's debate win overshadowed by Walz's 'presidential' appeal

The Vice Presidential debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz has added new momentum to the US election, with significant implications for the race ahead. As the nation grapples with economic concerns, social issues, and questions of leadership, the impact of the debate on voter sentiment is already visible.

Prolific’s biweekly polls capture these shifts in real time, providing a nuanced view of the American electorate. Our latest poll, conducted just after the debate, sheds light on emerging trends and unexpected developments to provide insights into the key issues driving voter decisions.

Vance wins the VP debate, but Walz makes gains

JD Vance emerged as the perceived winner of the Vice Presidential debate, with 34% of respondents giving him the edge. However, Tim Walz didn't come away empty-handed. He's made significant progress with key demographic groups:

• 27% of 18-24-year-olds support Walz
• 38% of African Americans back him

These numbers suggest Walz is building momentum among younger voters and communities of color, potentially decisive blocs in the upcoming election.

Vance vs Trump is a tale of two Republicans

One of the most intriguing findings from our poll is the growing distinction between JD Vance and Donald Trump in voters' minds. When it comes to likeability and professionalism, Vance is pulling ahead:

• 56% of Americans see Vance as more professional than Trump
• It’s a view that crosses party lines: 59% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans agree
• Younger voters (54% of 18-24-year-olds) and women (54%) also rate Vance's professionalism higher

The findings indicate that Vance is successfully carving out his own identity within the Republican ticket, potentially appealing to a broader range of voters than Trump.

Walz has the 'presidential' factor

In a surprising turn, when we asked respondents who seemed more "presidential," Tim Walz came out on top. Fifty-three percent of Americans chose him over JD Vance. This lead was even more pronounced among certain groups:

• 67% of younger voters
• 74% of African Americans
• 66% of Hispanic voters

It looks like Walz has broader appeal across diverse voter demographics, a factor that could prove crucial in a close election.

Economy and abortion drive election focus

As the election approaches, there appears to be a stark divide in voter priorities. The economy continues to dominate, with 40% of Americans identifying it as their most important issue.  It’s a concern that’s particularly pronounced among Republicans, with 52% citing it as their top issue, compared to just 27% of Democrats.

Immigration ranks as the second-most pressing issue across the board at 15%, followed by abortion at 13%. The abortion issue shows a notable partisan split, with 22% of Democrats viewing it as a key issue, while only 6% of Republicans see it as a top priority.

A disparity in priorities could significantly influence campaign strategies in the final weeks before the election. Democrats may focus on mobilizing their base by emphasizing reproductive rights, while Republicans are likely to double down on economic messaging.

The poll also reveals potential openings for both campaigns to sway undecided voters. The Biden-Walz ticket might benefit from stronger messaging on their economic plans to address Republican-leaning voters' concerns. 

Conversely, the Trump-Vance campaign could potentially broaden their appeal by addressing issues beyond the economy, particularly to capture independent voters who may be swayed by a more diverse platform.

What does it all mean?

The 2024 election goes beyond party loyalty, testing the nation's trust, leadership and vision for the future. Vance may have won the debate, but Walz is gaining ground where it matters—among young voters and minority groups. As election day approaches, these shifting dynamics could be the deciding factor. 

Voter priorities will likely shape the final push from both campaigns, with each ticket needing to address key issues—especially the economy, immigration, and abortion—effectively in what promises to be a closely contested race.

A note on our methodology

At Prolific, we're committed to providing high-quality, reliable data. Here's how we conduct our polls:

• We survey a representative sample of the US population
• Our participants are verified and vetted to ensure data quality
• We use advanced techniques to minimize bias and ensure accurate results

We'll continue tracking voter sentiment right up to election day, with our next update coming soon. 

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